The Triumph of Winnability, Death of Ability, Abortion of the Meritocracy

If the elections were held today, the oligarch  Noynoy Aquino is most likely going to emerge as the winner.

The Jan 2010 Release of the SWS National Survey showed that

The special SWS December 27-28, 2009 national survey, sponsored by San Juan Representative Ronaldo Zamora, asked the question: “Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?” [Among the names found in this list, who will you probably vote for as PRESIDENT of the Philippines, if elections were held today?].

From a list showing the names of Benigno Aquino III and Manuel Villar, Jr. only, 52% chose Aquino and 44% chose Villar [Table 1]. The same list was tested in the October 1-4, 2009 survey, commissioned by Ms. Avic Amarillo, which found 65% for Aquino and 28% for Villar.

Four other scenarios were also tested in the December 2009 survey.

From a list showing 7 names without Joseph Estrada Ejercito, 49% chose Aquino, 38% Villar, 6% Teodoro, 2% Villanueva, 1% Gordon, 1% Madrigal, and 0.3% De Los Reyes [Table 2].

From a list of 7 names without Gilberto Teodoro, Jr., 45% chose Aquino, 35% Villar, 14% Estrada, 2% Gordon, 2% Villanueva, 1% Madrigal, and 0.4% De Los Reyes [Table 3].

From a list of showing Benigno Aquino III, Gilberto Teodoro, Jr., and Manuel Villar, Jr., 50% chose Aquino, 40% Villar, and 7% Teodoro [Table 4].

From a list of showing Benigno Aquino III, Joseph Estrada Ejercito, and Manuel Villar, Jr., 47% chose Aquino, 37% Villar, and 14% Estrada [Table 5].

The December 27-28, 2009 survey used face-to-face interviews of 2,100 adults, for an error margin of ±2.2%. The October 1-4, 2009 survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults, for an error margin of ±3%.

The “sensitivity” analysis revealed that no matter the mix of candidates, Noynoy emerged on top, IF the elections were held today.

But there’s more to this than meets the eye.

The choice of grouping is very interesting. It appears to ask “if the marketing mix of the campaign themes were calibrated such that the focus of each were only on the personalities mentioned in the survey, what will be the outcome?

The next interesting question to ask  would then be, “what is the ideal marketing mix of themes that has the best chance of success?

Let’s try to make sense of the numbers – and what they imply.

I will refer  to the conditions measured by each table as a scenario. Thus Table 1 can be interpreted as a measure of Scenario 1, Table 2 as Scenario 2, so on and so forth.

Scenario 1 – Aquino versus Villar

The first table is presented below:

Table 1


1-1. Noynoy Aquino can get a mandate if Villar is his only opponent. (Table 1 – Aquino-52%, Villar-44%).

1-2. The number of undecided decreased from 6% to 4%.  This is a clear indication of polarization.

1-3. Preference for Noynoy decreased by 13% in a three month period (Oct-Dec). Villar had an 8% increase during the period

1-4. People CAN be convinced not to vote for Noynoy (obviously they can be convinced to switch  as shown by the 13% decrease in preference. Whether this trend has bottomed out remains to be seen.

1-5. If the downward trend for Noynoy continues, as Villar chips through Aquino’s lead, the position can be reversed with Villar getting 60% by May.

Scenario 2 -Without Estrada

If the COMELEC’s decision allowing Erap Estrada to run were reversed, the outcome will most likely be similar to Table 2. Of course, if the elections were held today and Erap is no longer running most likely Noynoy still wins. However, a mandate will still be elusive and Aquino’s staff better be ready to deal with the fact that Noynoy will be a minority president.


2-1. Compared to Table 1, Aquino was down 3 points at 49% while Villar’s went farther south by 6 points.  A 9% drop for the top 2.

2-2. 14% of voters will not vote for either Aquino or Villar.

2.3. Assuming the downward trend of Aquino continues and Villar maintains a steady upward pace, the roles can again be reversed by May, Villar at 53% – Aquino at 33%.

Scenario 3 – without Teodoro.

At worst, Noynoy’s lowest score is 45% – Scenario 2 – IF TEODORO IS NOT IN THE RUNNING.

Fortunately for Aquino, Teodoro (read.. public’s punching bag – fall guy for Arroyo) is in the running.


3-1. Villar is also affected by a Teodoro withdrawal. Manny will have a 9% decrease – lower than Noynoy’s 7% decrease.

3-2. Aquino and Villar, together, will have a 16% decrease in voter preference if Teodoro withdrew. This implies, that at least a quarter of the top 2’s base is made of people who choose Aquino or Villar due primarily to their anti-GMA position.

3-3. Gordon experienced a one point bump. This implies voters who prefer Teodoro’s ability are comfortable with Gordon’s executive ability as well.

3-4. So, if the election were held today, Aquino will still not have a mandate nor a true majority (more than 50%) by any means, but Aquino will win just the same.  However, Aquino will be a minority president.

3-5. Without Gibo, if Aquino’s downward trend continues and Villar’s upward movement is sustained, Villar can get 51% by May, while Aquino is kept to 25% of total.

Scenario 4 – Aquino/Villar/Teodoro

If this were a three party race and the election were held today Aquino still wins and he will most likely have a majority as parts of the undecided might swing towards his way.

Table 4


4-1. Teodoro’s presence had a minimal downward movement on the preference for the top 2. Compared to Table 1, the decrease was only 2% from Aquino and 4% from Villar or only 6% total.

4-2. If Aquino’s downward movement continues and Villar’s upward push is sustained, the roles can be reversed by May with Aquino at 35% and Villar at 56%.

Scenario 5 – Aquino/Estrada/Villar

The bad news is Erap still has a pull – approximately 14%.

The good news is his base is no longer as huge as it used to be.

Thank goodness, muntik akong pinawisan ng maraming singot.

Table 5


5-1. Estrada’s presence led to a decrease of voter preference for Aquino by 5%, and 9% from Villar, a total of 14% reduction for the top 2 candidates.

5-2. If Aquino’s downward movement continues and Villar’s upward push is sustained, the roles can be reversed by May with Villar at 46% and Aquino at 29%-31%.

5-3. Erap’s base will be intact at 14%

What Can Be Made Out of This SWS Dec 2009 Survey Results?

Are you still with me? You better, because am not… Just kidding 🙂

Having gone through all that, it will be fair to conclude that:

1. It is no rocket science and we don’t need a statistics PhD to tell us that, if the election were held today, Aquino will be the likely winner with at least 45% to 52% of votes cast.

2. Since the race is a plurality, Aquino will have the highest number of votes, but he will not have a true majority (50%+1) –  he will be a minority president.

3. With the entry of candidates other than Villar and Aquino, voters WHO DO NOT PREFER Aquino ranged from 48% to 55% of total voters. If Noynoy inherits Cory’s incompetency, he can also wind up inheriting the coup d’ etats that plagued the notoriously inept Aquino administration.

4. Given additional choices, there are voters who do change preferences as shown by the fact that  the entry of other candidates (Tables 2-5) , when compared to  an Aquino-Villar race only (Table 1)  led to a reduction in voter preference for both Aquino and Villar.

5. Villar had a setback with Aquino’s instant candidacy after Cory’s wake. The euphoria and the sympathy votes appear to be waning as more issues come to the fore as shown by the 13% decrease from October-December.

6. Despite the C-5 issue, Villar has been trending upwards.

7. Doubts about Noynoy’s ability, performance, people-behind-Aquino, stance  on Hacienda Luisita are being discussed. It does not help that Noynoy has been avoiding the issue and has come out sounding like a weasel. Aquino can have the cheesiest tear jerking ad. But such an ad sounds so phoney given the depth of suffering and misery in Hacienda Luisita. The argument is simple really – if you cannot clean your own backyward, why will I trust you to clean mine? or that of my neighbors? By coming with pronouncements only now but not acting when it was needed most – Aquino is seen as an opportunist.

8. The election is still 9 months away and roles can be reversed. Villar can re-emerge as the frontrunner garnering anywhere from 46% to 56% in a plurality.

9.  Gordon, Reyes, and Perlas don’t have a chance.

The Triumph of Winnability, Death of Ability, Abortion of the Meritocracy

Gordon is the best candidate – at the wrong time. He has the ability and track record. What I don’t like with Gordon is that he has not come up with a substantiated platform that outlines his position on the issues of the day. Senator Dick, If you are courting people’s votes, please come down from Mount Olympus and provide a platform. People are busy earning a living and will need precious time just to search for your pronouncements scattered all over the net. More candidates are stepping up, please show that you are on top of this. hile there is no arguing the success of Subic’s turnaround – it does not necessarily translate to being the best candidate for President. The Peter Principle can come in anytime and voila – stuff can hit the ceiling fan and it will not look good. Character-wise Gordon’s handling of the recent hostage negotiations show an astute and steady negotiator who does not succumb to trigger-happy hawks. Gordon may very well wind up like Raul Roco, as among the best upright people who would have made really excellent presidents. Sen. Gordon will be in the Hall of Fame of Philippine Presidents We Never Had or something to that effect.

Nick Perlas is too late in the game. Pilipino Time and New Politics don’t mix. Nick is obviously, a thinker – but it seems his head is stuck in the clouds. In a landscape that he knew revolves around winnability, his network of contacts could have laid down the foundations for new politics and sustained it in order to wean away the electorate from patronage politics and create a transition towards a more responsible public debate. As a co-convenor of the forces ideologically allied with KOMPIL, Perlas is deeply entrenched in the non-profit world – the man’s got a heart – that’s a good thing. Given his idealism, I wonder if he will survive the horsetrading and realpolitik. Oftentimes the non-profit world has lots of wonderful ideas which buckle down in practice due to lack of economies of scale. But those questions will not be answered during this election and possibly for another generation more.

Ang Kapatiran’s JC Reyes has good intentions. It’s just that am particular with the separation of the church and state. When I saw Kapatiran’s clearly Catholic slant, I thought okay when are you guys turning into the Caliban?

I have already seen an Aquino administration – and given that the same people behind Cory are the same group behind Noynoy, have an idea of the operational paralysis to expect from an inept Noynoy presidency. If he can inherit “greatness” he can also inherit the incompetence.

By the looks of it the Philippines is in for deja vu.



  1. Excellent view of other candidates. All of your observations are generally correct for me. And the conclusion is the same… not the best results ever, and it’s still the same history repeating itself.

    I must reiterate to others:
    SWS Survey ≠ Election results

  2. Numbers Man · ·


    Is that all the data available? Do we have enough data to make a confident trend prediction within an acceptable standard error of +/- 3%?

  3. Numbers Man · ·

    I agree Chino.

    Just because someone will say he will vote for so and so does not mean he will actually give the time and effort to go out and vote. Many people just don’t bother. I am not being cynical. I am just stating a fact.

  4. I think your assessment is correct. What I find confusing, however, is the insistence of the survey agencies in generating “scenarios” which, since they do not reflect the actual circumstances, give unreliable results. This is just like the earlier “pick 3” survey. I don’t think the results would actually change that much (they could have still honored Rep. Zamora’s request to produce a survey favorable to his preference, which is really the only firm conclusion we can draw from this — who Rep. Zamora is supporting), so why introduce unnecessary uncertainty?

  5. I would also like to see numbers of the SWS surveys before Ramos, Erap and GMA won, to compare whether the surveys actually predicted properly. I read somewhere that none of those surveys hit at all. They’re poor predictors. Hold it… not predictors at all.

  6. UP n grad · ·

    SWS survey says that NoyNoy has 44%. Over 16% of this 44% is from masa – classes D/E.
    And I suspect they answer SWS as they feel — will a barbero choosing from a list using
    emotions think Gordon or will that barbero choose pakikiramay — NoyNoy?

    election-day voting is when voters pick “sino nga ba ang makakatulong sa bansa?
    Sino nga ba ang makakatulong sa akin?” Many of the NGO’s haven’t started their
    voters information drives, says noemi in a FilipinoVoices blogcomment.
    The Movement of Good Governance is launching their Selection Criteria Score card on February 9. Many Civil Society Groups are creating awareness on evaluating candidates so give it a few more weeks for choices to be made. In the beginning there will be a short list, then a choice. It is also subject to change as election nears

  7. I attended the SWS survey presentation a few weeks ago and the same question was asked. Mangahas refused to make such prediction. The only thing he said was a 10% level increase was noted in one month to Trillanes. He continued “it is possible it can happen again’.

  8. I was privy to the plans of the civil society orgs (cso) at a roundtable discussion with the Center for Media Freedom and Responsibility. Some CSOs have actually started . YouthVote just started their first in a series of forums. Movement of Good Governance initiated town hall gatherings to discuss the candidates and electoral reforms.. They are encouraging voters to choose based on a selection criteria

    We don’t hear some CSOs in traditional media.sad..yeah I know, I am supposed to write on this soon…

  9. UP n grad · ·

    Over so many weeks, NoyNoy dropped 2%. There are 3-1/2 months with wilder swings ahead.
    Noy keeps dropping plus-2% every month means it is wide open come may2010 election day.

    Pakikiramay-because of Cory’s death can not carry NoyNoy into Malacanang, one would think.
    If I were Gordon, I’ll keep pounding against Noy with the message
    —- “Look at us Gordon/Fernando. Efficiency delivered, good governance delivered.
    Not emotional empty promises.”

    If I were Villar, I’d keep with the message “What has NoyNoy done — NoyNoy is palabas lang.”

    Erap has the bigger message especially for the class-C-D-E to chew away at NoyNoy votes.
    If I were Erap, I’d keep pounding out the message “Noynoy is the elitista choice,”

  10. Joe America · ·


    How do “purchased votes” get factored into the survey? If Villar is as well organized as I think he is, he only needs to get close and then let his vote-collecting machinery push him over the top. That is consistent with the message he is pounding out that “we are gaining, we are close”. Or a sneak in COMELEC, even easier.

    See what a horror lack of trust engenders?

    I agree Gordon is the most solid and and reasoned of the lot, but his steak does not sizzle.

    I also think the line-up of candidates is no worse than Kerry-Bush, so Filipinos need not cry in their San Migs. I think it is important to start thinking about how to influence the presidency after the election. Blog that, eh?


  11. UP n grad · ·

    If I were NoyNoy, I’d circle the wagons to protect my 44%.

    This means hanging onto their core — the ones who were pro-Mar-Roxas before NoyNoy jumped in.
    It also means the Cory-istas, including the CBCP folks who like Cory’s straight-Katoliko slant.

    The disaffected from GMA who had jumped into Noy can also be considered “core”. MLQ3 is probably
    a very good example of that, or bert over at FilVoices.

    NoyNoy has to protect his 44%. Another 3%-drop may scare those who are in his camp only
    because of “bandwagon” — hanging onto the coattails of Him-With-Momentum.

    Of course, NoyNoy has to get his platform better understood. sparks at FilipinoVoices had mentioned that NoyNoy has a good urban-poor platform — then get the message out. NoyNoy has to reach out to the rural-Poor, too. NoyNoy does not have to reach out to the classes-A and -B, except to convince them that he is still the one with Momentum.

    What I don’t know is if a “get-out-the-Vote” is good for NoyNoy.

  12. UP n grad · ·

    And I’ll also spend money to find that poor woman that NoyNoy mentioned at the MBC speech.

    If that woman comes on TV saying — yes, NoyNoy has helped me — Whammo, NoyNoy is good!

    If that woman comes on TV saying — pareho pa rin ako ngayon, walang tumulong.
    Or worse, if that woman says “Kay Gordon ho ako. Iyong Red Cross, naaasahan.”
    Or worse, if that woman says “Iyong anak kong OFW, sabi, kay Villar daw kami.”

    It is quite many more weeks to May2010. Hindi pa tapos ang boksing!

  13. Joe:

    All is fair in love and war.

    If the Aquinos are aware of any plan then they can be proactive, society can be proactive.

    There is always a price to not being proactive – the cost of not doing anything.

    trapo politics as it is – villar’s has to resort to purchased votes because the oligarchs have vote farms standing by at noynoy’s disposal. while Villar has yet to purchase the vote, noynoy already has the oligarch vote – that means all the squatters and employees of oligarchs.

    it will not be obvious in makati but quite pronounced in the provinces. for example, noynoy’s oligarch backers in davao will tell squatters on their property “no vote, ibut” – which means – if you don’t vote for who i tell you, get the f*ck out of my property/company”.

    i take it a grain of salt when oligarch candidates talk about purchased votes, they are simply out to protect the lead courtesy of their vote farms. magnanakaw galit sa kapwa magnanakaw.

  14. You’re on the right track, but not to influence the presidency. Forget that; you’ll just have to get in a very long and much wealthier line in order to do that. Start thinking of ways to make progress despite the presidency. That is, unless people come to their senses and elect one of the couple-three progressive candidates that are running (I’m not holding my breath for that, though).

  15. I’m sorry to say, but I respectfully disagree with your analysis. Nick Perlas will win. Why? Because the world doesn’t have a “generation more” to wait around for New Politics. Unless we start voting our conscience, and electing officials who deeply understand and have the capacity to help us transform our problems, this planet is going to burn (I don’t know if anyone’s been paying attention to this whole global warming thing, but it’s looking bad…)

    The thing is: you can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created. Albert Einstein said that. So my question is: which of your political candidates is able to access the next level of consciousness that could transform and transcend these problems? Is it Noy Noy? Manny? Gibo? Do you really believe it’s Dick Gordon with his grandstanding? These guys are part of the political machine, and the machine is CORRUPT. It’s one of the worst in the world. All of the presidentiables at the Youth Forum were talking openly about government skimming 20% of government monies, and from what I understand that’s a conservative estimate. And here you have Nicaor Perlas – a globally recognized environmental activist, associative economics expert, and world-class teacher of socially-engaged spirituality. But of course you’ll say that because Filipinos don’t know those terms, he’s not electable. Well, I’m sorry to say but Filipinos are going to need to stop texting and checking their Facebook pages during the debates and actually start paying attention to what the man is saying, because it is PROFOUND. He is definitely offering the most thought-through and substantive analysis of all the problems. There’s no way he has his head in the clouds. He’s the only one talking sense.

    I beg you to actually read his platform. And once you’re done, check out Philippine Agenda 21 which he co-wrote and which sustainability advocates world-wide hail as the most comprehensive understanding of the myriad problems we face.

    Nick will win. He’ll win because Filipinos who care about their country (and the rest of the planet) and recognize the urgency of these times, will vote for him. Even though he’s not electable, and they’re crazy to throw their vote away, they’ll join him because they’re sick of choosing the lesser of two evils – which is still just evil. Nick doesn’t need to win the celebrity-obsessed 21 year olds anytime soon… he just needs to win over one person with a heart after another until he reaches the “tipping point.” Once that happens, the rest of the country will see he’s “winnable” and you’ll have an extraordinary president and the beginning of a New Philippines. Then the rest of us who are watching your elections from abroad (and our numbers continue to grow) will celebrate to see the Philippines become the first country to usher in the New Politics that we all so desperately need.

    People call Nick crazy for waging a campaign for New Politics in such a non-traditional way. Nick’s not crazy, the rest of us are all insane. As Albert Einstein once said “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

  16. Nick is not crazy, the electorate is.

    Get over it – Nick is not even in the radar screen.

    Sure he can get 2 million votes, 5 million votes – with the KOMPIL and MINCODE and CODE networks, even – then will it make him the President? No it will not.

    Nick’s only success in this campaign is to be able to bring the message that we need New Politics.

  17. UP n grad · ·

    to Seth: If, next week, Nick Perlas ramps up to 10%-or-higher of the votes, I would expect a couple of CBCP hochos start to talk against Perlas-presidency. Reason: Nick Perlas is not only Pro-Reproductive Health Bill, Nick Perlas is the only one who had put onto paper that he is for abortion in the first few weeks of pregnancy.

  18. noemi

    the first question that should have been asked is “who are paying?”. surveys are supposed to be commissioned researches. who commissioned them?

    the next would be the acceptability of the samples from the defined population. even if the sampling methodology is random i would still question the validity of the number of samples and its percentage from the population. the scope of the survey is an archipelago of about seven thousand islands and further divided into forty two thousand barangays, and the population is about fifty million.

    lastly, what is the purpose of the survey?

  19. jet:

    there’s a sample size calculator at –
    and a nice read at –

    not that i don’t know you eat stats for breakfast, lunch, supper – washed down with red horse… nyahahahaha

    here’s my one sentimo take – the survey has something to do with the marketing mix – specifically, a media campaign – possibly Tri-media.

    Each “scenario” examines the possible results if the marketing “mix” or the segmentation of messages that played out in the tri-media.

    for example, as election day came close, and the messages in the MSM had a mix similar to Scenario 1 – the possible election outcome will be Noynoy – 52%.

    or if a month before election day, the SC stops estrada from running, how will estrada’s supporters migrate? are they sizeable? as shown by one of the scenarios – 14% of the electorate will be up for grabs if Estrada no longer runs. Aquino will gain 3 points and Villar will gain 6 points, the rest will be spread to the other candidates.

    this scenario will be correlated with the various reasons why people disagree why Noynoy is not the best candidate – the reasons with the best basis will be played up in order to cause the sustained southward movement of Aquino and sustain Villar’s momentum.

    3 months down the line – Aquino’s lead is not as monolithic as it appears. Anyone heard of the Cardinals and the Superbowl? 🙂

  20. I agree that Nick may not be winnable, but then that’s not a reason not to vote for him. I voted for Lim and Roco in the previous elections because of what they stand for, even when knowing they may not win. Make a stand. Vote for your principles.

  21. good points bong…

    opinion polls are social surveys are way way different from market surveys. the later is about products and services while the former is more on perception on persons. the scientific way of determining sample sizes has been defined by statisticians have been used in social science surveys to determine specific behaviour of the defined population. social science researchers have used other statistical tools from the simplest descriptive statistics to more complicated ones. these are deemed academically accepted and therefore dogmatic formulas. i’m not trying to question these dogmas. first it is not my cup of tea… second, even if i would devote my time to contest that acceptability it would take several stastical journals to prove that i have a valid point. my point is simple… how can you explain to the masa that the samples 2,000 of the 50 million voters is the right representation. a doctor of statistics would of course reply… study statistics you ignorant fool… hehehehe…

    for whatever purpose it is, either the media conglomerates or the politicians have paid for that. these types of surveys are costly. a research outfit cannot conduct this kind of research for charitable purposes.

    there are good arguments on opinion polls here: . the following outline may interest you to click… hehehe…

    # 2 Sample and polling methods

    * 2.1 Tracking polls

    # 3 Potential for inaccuracy

    * 3.1 Nonresponse bias
    * 3.2 Response bias
    * 3.3 Wording of questions
    * 3.4 Coverage bias
    * 3.5 Fraudulent polling

    # 4 Polling organizations
    # 5 Failures
    # 6 Influence

  22. i hear ya pareng jet.

    thanks for the links btw.

    the blending of social science and marketing captures the commoditization of people.

    people as consumers – and people as voters – same behavior.

    applying the methodologies of social science to shape the outcome of the election by tapping the power “focus groups” – in this case, a sample size of 1200 spread all over the Philippines – is good money 🙂

    of course, the final arbiter will be the elections itself.

  23. Amen.

    I voted for Raul Roco in the previous elections, too.

    In the 80s, I cast my vote for Cory Aquino. Cory had good intentions – but, it wasn’t good enough. For all the goodwill she had – it was wasted by the people who surrounded her. I was disgusted, DAR itself, Cory’s flagship program was so full of corruption!

    Money changed hands specially with the VOS, as landowners wanted to get a higher valuation for their properties.

  24. “I also think the line-up of candidates is no worse than Kerry-Bush, so Filipinos need not cry in their San Migs. I think it is important to start thinking about how to influence the presidency after the election. Blog that, eh?”

    good point JoeAm

    it is also important to note that presidents who’ve won are based on plurality vote.

  25. Perlas in this case will be the Philippines answer to Ralph Nader or Dr. Ron Paul 😀

    At least, Ron Paul got himself elected.

    Ika nga, don’t bite more than you can chew.

    Specially when you are out to introduce new politics, books are good – but you can’t argue with success when you have passed legislation or at least transform your barangay. Gordon, turned Subic around and transformed it – however, Gordon has been so busy that he couldn’t find time to write a book.

    It’s one thing to be a consultant to presidents or people on the driver’s seats – than being in the driver’s seat himself. I would tell Gordon to bring Nick Perlas on board, however.

  26. “nasubukan mo na bang lumangoy sa dagat ng basura?”
    “nasubukan mo na bang mag pasko sa kalsada?”

    hehehehe… these can be survey questions… answerable by YES or NO…

    the higher purpose of social science surveys such as the one conducted by SWS must not only be limited to determine the behavior on WHO the respondent will vote for. THE WHY is more important and the analysis should be an in-depth one. unfortunately, the paying client and the research outfit agrees on limited variables within a very simplistic research conceptual framework. the bias lies on the ones paying for the research.

    langyang redhorse yan… ang lakas ng tama… hehehehe…

  27. I have already seen an Aquino administration – and given that the same people behind Cory are the same group behind Noynoy, have an idea of the operational paralysis to expect from an inept Noynoy presidency. If he can inherit “greatness” he can also inherit the incompetence.

    By the looks of it the Philippines is in for deja vu.

    It seems that all roads lead back to the fundamental question of whether The Vote necessarily equates to wisdom. Note how one can substitute the words “The Vote” in the above sentence with “Popularity” and the sentence will still make sense.

    Popular sentiment is what makes Noynoy a winner in the sense acquiring political power in the current system.

    But this current means to acquire political power (appealing to popular sentiment) is not consistent and does not support the fundamental need of Pinoy society which is to grant political power to those most qualified to lead.

    That is the fundamental disconnect.

    As the first Aquino administration had demonstrated:

    (1) “People power” granted Cory Aquino priviledge of political power; but,

    (2) It was the traditional oligarchy who ended up wielding this power; because,

    (3) The person granted said political power was not qualified to wield said political power.

    Disconnect in philosphy and disinformation around priorities. That is what is making undermining our march to progress and even kicking it into reverse.

  28. Jet, mukhang ang SWS surveys, niluluto din. hehe

  29. From singing triumvirate, Bayani could team with a “stinging” triumvirate – Gordon and Perlas. hehehe. In our dreams.

  30. jet,

    korek ka jan – finding out the why is important. the voters could be voting for the candidate for the wrong reasons. on another note, the candidate can accommodate and add the voters concerns to his platform.

  31. i was supposed to write an article on this as SWS told me that they will show me the methodology. Will find time to head off to their SWS office


    latest survey commissioned by Business world. Jan 21-24

    front page and the inside page

    ABS-CBN-Aquino’s lead down to 7 points in January SWS survey

  32. Nex Agustin · ·

    Nick Perlas is going to win because there are a lot more people awakening in my beloved country. Nick Perlas is going to win because he is the only one representing my vision of a New Philippines. Nick Perlas is going to win because he is the only one who can think above and beyond the clouds, the only one who can dream big for my country and my fellow Filipinos. Nick Perlas is going to win because he is the only one who respects, and listens to the marginalized, disempowered people in this country. Nick Perlas is going to win because he is going to get the millions of support from people who truly believe that the Philippines deserves only the best. Nick Perlas is going to win because people like me will vote for my principle, integrity, conscience and love for country –and he is clearly the only one who represents that. And that is the reality I am co-creating with the rest of the awakened, enlightened and emerging conscious Filipinos!

  33. Nick Perlas is an idealist, and so are you. I respect that, but I do not — at this point, anyway, although there is always hope as long as people are working for change — think that is going to gain him the presidency. Keep it up, though; after the country elects one of these other boneheads and realizes their grave error, someone who knows what they’re doing will need to step into the breach. Perhaps that will be Perlas’ moment.

  34. UP n grad · ·

    to Nex: YES! On election day, mark that voting form for Perlas to get the message to all Pinoys that there are many citizens who believe in Perlas platform, his character, his accomplishments, his leadership style.

  35. When the awakening reaches 40% to 45% – Nick will have a chance – but that supposes his opponent does not have a platform that matches and surpasses Nick’s platform – mano a mano.

    Nick is barely in the voter’s radar screen – once he gets more Pinoys into “the awakening” (of which he does not have a monopoly of, by the way) – then he increases his chances.

    But to say, he is winning this election – someone ought to give Nick a bitch-slap as a reality check – as I say Pilipino Time (always late) and New Politics don’t mix.

    Nick’s ideas are in the stratosphere (in comparison to the typical Pinoy) – so lumilipad na nga sya, late pa talagang pumasok sa eksena. I don’t think he factored the elecotrate’s learning curve when he did his calculus.

    Will that stop me from voting for Nick? It will not – though at this point – am not there, yet.

    I don’t like his talk of “creation” – it indicates a strongly Catholic bent to me – I just have this thing for separation of church and state – and Nick seems to blur the lines – that makes me VERY uncomfortable.

    On the question of executive experience – Nick does not stack up against the competition. Running an NGO is a lot different than running an LGU. His books and writings sounds good – but he’s not tested on the ground. This “pontificating” – I was offered a Cabinet position but did not take it – to me is a turn off. I would have preferred he went int there, showed his stuff, then when he came at odds – resign on principle – that would have been a better approach – instead of ding a mataray – “you are beneath me and will not be a part of the cabinet biatch” act.

  36. If you guys don’t put your act together and vote for your highest principles and ideals, do you think there will ever be another Philippine election for presidency? All the other candidates have been compromised in one way or another. Only PERLAS isn’t. And he has the track record to prove that. No other candidate can claim that.

  37. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by AntiPinoy.Com, Dr. José Rizal II. Dr. José Rizal II said: @momblogger @rochellesychua @cocoy Good read: […]

  38. Rex Ian Sayson · ·

    Just wanted to share a reflection I’ve been going through some time now about “wasted votes”. Is there really such a thing?

    Which vote is a wasted vote? The one used to give the best candidate a fighting chance, or the one used to let a supposed front-runner’s backers control the outcome with unscientific surveys? Having generated the largest business portfolio for my previous company using market research, it really bothers me that the methodologies behind the various election surveys seem so loose that the results are practically useless except for whatever agendas those who paid for the surveys may have.

    For example, if Noynoy A is really the front-runner, how come most people I speak with are supporting Gordon?

    Obviously since I’m not a Villar-ionaire I can’t do a proper survey myself at this point, but it’s very worrying – look at the financial crisis caused by believing too much in credit ratings paid for by the companies being rated themselves – how much misery has been caused by this ill-placed compianza? Should we peg our faith in getting the leaders we deserve on unscientific surveys, or should we peg our faith on finding the best fit candidate for our country’s needs?

    What would you like our country to have achieved 6 years from now? How do we measure the achievements we would like our people to have accomplished in 6 years, 12 years, 24 years, and what kind of proven accomplishments let us know which candidates are the best choice?

    I am sure different voters will have different criteria, and different results, but I hope you’d help spread the word to let the best candidate win, and not necessarily the ones pre-selected by paid-for survey companies. Personally, I’m impressed with this platform and the values, qualifications and experience behind it

    Just to share, where I’m from, I can go jogging at night, there’s a functioning public library, LTO transactions take 15 minutes, public school students have international-standard classrooms, and it doesn’t even need to collect the same taxes as Makati. Do we want to just survive in our country, or really live?

    I believe our people will make the right choice if we just remind ourselves to stay focused on what this election is about – our future, our dreams, and our loved ones.

    May the best candidate win.

    What do you think? Please spread the word to everyone you care about also

    Cheers 🙂

  39. […] I maintain no delusion – Noynoy Aquino is poised to clinch this election well before the outcome of the 2010 Philippine elections started trickling in. We called it in as early as Dec 25, 2009 in BenK’s Top Ten Predictions for 2010 and again in Jan 2010 in the blog The Triumph of Winnability, Death of Ability, Abortion of the Meritocracy. […]

  40. Rennan · ·

    and Gibo Teodoro???

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